A quiet day in the currency markets yesterday saw the USD fall 0.25%, marking its third consecutive daily loss, continuing to grind lower overnight ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Headline NFP job additions came in slightly above expectations, though the prior month’s reading was revised lower by 54k jobs. Net payroll revisions for the last two job figures were -111k. The unemployment rate ticked up, and hourly wages receded as expected. Job gains were led by the Education and Health Services, and Government categories. The downward revisions and uptick in unemployment give a slightly weaker lean to the overall data. September rate cut odds have increased marginally since the release.

EUR/USD rose 0.25% yesterday and is headed for its seventh consecutive daily advance after the US NFP data, trading nearly 1.25% higher than this time last week. Speaking yesterday, ECB President Lagarde said she needs more reassurance that inflation is headed back to target before further policy easing moves. “We need a lot of data — I’m not sure that we are getting those data at every single monetary-policy Governing Council meeting that we have,” she said. “In theory… it could happen at any of our meetings. But on the basis of a strong set of data.” France’s second-round vote is on Sunday after first-round voting saw Marine Le Pen’s National Rally fail to secure a majority. A second round of voting that delivers a hung parliament will likely result in political uncertainty.

GBP/USD gained 0.15% yesterday and is up another 0.4% today, trading about 1.4% higher than this time last week, reaching three-week highs. The UK election yesterday resulted in the expected landslide victory of the Labour Party, set to win over 400 seats. Keir Starmer will become the new Prime Minister, and Rachel Reeves is expected to become the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Sunak announced he will resign from party leadership in the near future.

USD/CAD fell 0.2% yesterday and is marginally higher today, trading about 0.3% lower than this time last week. Employment data released this morning missed forecasts of 25k job additions, posting a loss of 1.4k jobs in June. The unemployment rate was expected to tick up but rose 0.2%, while hourly wages rose 5.6% versus 5.3% expected. Implied rate cut odds for the BOC’s July 24 rate decision rose above 50% after the data.