Economic Update 27 Jan 2025 7 minute read
EU disinflation gains momentum & BoE gears up for bold rate cut
Last Tuesday, the number of new claimants in December 2024 rose by only 700, compared to the forecast of over 10,000. This positive surprise indicated a stronger-than-anticipated labour market in the UK. However, employment levels still decreased for a...
Economic Update 20 Jan 2025 7 minute read
Pound under pressure amid stagnation fears
UK retail sales fell unexpectedly in December, coming in at -0.3% versus expectations of a 0.4% rise and causing the pound to lose ground at the end of last week. This followed a lower-than-expected GDP figure for November of 0.1%, with expectations having been at 0.2%, highlighting the challenge ahead for the UK economy through 2025...
Article 14 Jan 2025 19 minute read
2025 – Trump, tariffs, trade, terminal rates and political uncertainty
2024 was a significant year for global politics with roughly half of the global adult population having the opportunity to vote. Some were unexpected, such as in France, while others occurred earlier than anticipated, like in the UK, and now (at the time of writing) Canada. The outcomes of these elections, including in the US, led to...
Economic Update 13 Jan 2025 6 minute read
UK braces for potential stagflation: A double edged sword
Sterling fell to its lowest level against the Dollar since November 2023 last week as investors' concerns over the UK inflation outlook and increasing government debt led to a selloff in the UK gilt market. The 30-year rates reached highs last seen in 1998, whilst 10-year yields rose to the highest level since...
Economic Update 06 Jan 2025 7 minute read
Volatility expected as 2025 kicks off with key data releases
2025 could experience a volatile start to the year as there are many market data releases this week, which could significantly influence the FX markets. The pound started the year on the back foot against the dollar, with weakness from the currency also contributing to the dollar's current performance, following a run of mixed data at...